World Cup 2026 — Predictions & Title Odds
Who will win the 2026 World Cup? Our model rates every remaining team with Elo and runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the whole knockout bracket. Odds update automatically after every result.
⚠️ These are statistical model estimates, not facts or betting advice. Football is unpredictable — that's the fun of it.
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🏆 Who will win the World Cup?
Spain
100%
📊 How far will each team go?
Model probability of reaching each stage, for every team still in the tournament.
| Team | Quarter-final | Semi-final | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain |
100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
 Argentina |
100% | 100% | 100% | <1% |
 Morocco |
100% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 France |
100% | 100% | <1% | <1% |
 Norway |
100% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 England |
100% | 100% | <1% | <1% |
 Belgium |
100% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Switzerland |
100% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
How the model works
- Elo ratings. Every team starts from a pre-tournament Elo rating, updated after each World Cup result (winners gain points, losers lose them; bigger wins move more).
- Match model. The Elo gap — plus a home-soil bump for the co-hosts — sets each side's win probability and most-likely scoreline.
- 10,000 simulations. We play out the entire remaining bracket 10,000 times and count how often each team reaches each stage and lifts the trophy.
- Self-updating. As real results come in, ratings and odds recalculate automatically.